Changes could mean four local TDs in next Dáil

Local analysis of Electoral Commission report

The return of north Westmeath to the Longford Westmeath constituency could see four TDs from the county in the next Dáil.

That’s according to well placed local sources, who believe that with Westmeath voters making up around two thirds of the constituency’s electorate, the chances are that a local candidate will take the fifth seat when the nation goes to the polls next year.

The Electoral Commission’s report published on Wednesday recommended the transfer of 19 Electoral Divisions in north Westmeath to join the rest of the Longford Westmeath constituency.

The commission also recommended that Longford Westmeath be expanded to a five-seater.

The transfer of the 19 EDs back to Longford Westmeath, means an increase of 9,484 in the population of this constituency. With an overall population of 142,972, that means a population per TD of 28,594, below the national average of 29,593.

The EDs returning to the fold are Hilltown, Castlepollard, Fore West, Fore East, Clonarney, Rosmead, Killua, Ballinlough, Copperalley, Ballyhealy, Bracklin, Balllynaskeagh, Riverdale, Killulagh, Delvin, Kilpatrick, Collinstown, Faughalstown and Kinturk.

While all of the party representatives that the Westmeath Examiner spoke to welcomed the move, there were differing views among them on what parties and candidates will prosper from having a fifth seat in the constituency.

Most agreed that when it comes to the additional votes, the three sitting Westmeath TDs, who all come from the Mullingar end of the county, could benefit most.

One veteran political figure with an in-depth knowledge of the local political landscape noted that traditionally Fianna Fáil has a strong vote in north Westmeath thanks to the efforts of the likes of former senator and TD Donie Cassidy and Cllr Paddy Hill and that the reunification of the county should boost Deputy Robert Troy’s chances of being re-elected for a fourth Dáil term.

Minister of State Peter Burke could benefit from the core Fine Gael vote in the north of the county and will have a vocal and experienced advocate in Cllr Frank McDermott, Ireland’s longest serving elected representative, who made a submission calling for the reunification of the constituency.

Sinn Féin’s Sorca Clarke is expected to be the beneficiary of the significant Sinn Féin vote in the region which helped get her party colleague Johnny Guirke over the line in 2020 for a seat in Meath West.

Deputy Clarke told the Westmeath Examiner that while they won’t be holding their general election convention until later in the year, Sinn Féin will be running at least two candidates in Longford Westmeath, with the intention of both being elected.

There is no TD from the Athlone area in the current Dáil and some observers believe that the town’s electorate will make sure to rectify that in the next election. The expansion of the constituency to a five-seater also boosts the chances of an Athlone-based candidate being elected, as the quota will be lower.

Former government minister Kevin ‘Boxer’ Moran has stated that he intends to run in the next general election and will be confident that he can make a return to national politics at the first attempt.

It remains to be seen whether the main parties will run two or three candidates. It is believed that with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael’s current standing in the polls, they could run two candidates as their vote could become too diluted.

Some observers also believe that Athlone’s chances of returning a TD to the next Dáil could depend on the number of candidates that run.

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The fear is that a crowded field could divide the vote and make it difficult for someone to reach the quota – even if it is lower – as, traditionally, Athlone candidates have struggled to get significant votes outside the town.

In Longford, Deputy Joe Flaherty (FF) will run again and Senator Michael Carrigy (FG) could be his main challenger. However, Sinn Féin have been working hard on the ground in Longford and if they run a candidate will be confident they could win the seat.

Most sources we spoke to said that the expansion of Longford Westmeath into a five-seat constituency could also benefit the candidates from smaller parties, such as Labour and the Greens. They also noted that following the break-up of the Fianna Fáil/ Fine Gael duopoly over the past decade, predicting voting patterns has become more difficult.

Deputy Sorca Clarke said that modern voters are more “agile” than the predecessors and she believes they are more likely to vote for the party whose policies they support on issues such as housing and health, rather than voting for a candidate because of traditional allegiances inherited from family.

While delighted that north Westmeath has been brought back into the Longford Westmeath constituency, Minister of State Peter Burke, the only local TD to make a submission to the Electoral Commission, said that it is hard to predict which party or candidates will benefit most.

He noted that candidates from smaller parties and independents often do better in five-seat constituencies.

Deputy Burke also said that while the national mood will also be a factor in how people vote, the return of north Westmeath should benefit candidates based in this part of the county.

Deputy Robert Troy told the Westmeath Examiner that he was in Castlepollard and Delvin over the weekend and the people he met were happy to be back in the constituency.

When asked which party of candidates would benefit most from the reunification of the 19 EDs, Deputy Troy noted that of the three TDs elected in Meath West in 2020, Johnny Guirke (SF) got the biggest share of the north Westmeath vote, and Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael were joint second. However, he added that “at the end of the day you can’t judge on past elections”.

“Every election is unique in itself. There is a lot of water to flow under the bridge until the next election,” he said.