Analysis: Race for Dáil gets interesting in Longford Westmeath

It's becoming an increasingly intriguing election race in Longford/Westmeath, as we edge closer to polling day.

The subplots are many: will Athlone secure a TD; how will Sinn Féin fare; where will the extra fifth seat go; and will the immigration issue have a significant impact in Athlone?

In this regard, the Midlands Accommodation Centre in Lissywollen has undoubtedly emerged as an issue on doorsteps during this campaign.

However, the main issues across the constituency, according to candidates, remain the cost of living and the housing crisis, and it is not clear the extent of the impact the Lissywollen controversy will have on voting patterns.

There are 20 candidates contesting the election in a changed Longford/Westmeath constituency.

All four outgoing TDs are in the race again, but, this time, there are five seats up for grabs, following the redrawing of the constituency by the Boundary Commission is 2023.

Some 9,500 voters in the Castlepollard, Delvin and Collinstown areas have been restored to Westmeath, from the Meath West constituency.

Last time around, Athlone was left without a TD in the four-seat constituency, whilst in 2016 it was the county of Longford which failed to elect a TD from its ranks.

There are expectations that Athlone will be represented by a local TD – particularly with the addition of the extra seat. But that is not a racing certainty and some believe there is still a risk of the town losing out yet again.

That is based on a number of factors, including the possibility of the vote being diluted among six Athlone-based candidates.

There is concern also that the addition of the 9,500 votes in North Westmeath will strengthen further the Mullingar candidates, and the idea has also been floated of two Longford-based candidates - Joe Flaherty and Michéal Carrigy - being elected, possibly depriving Athlone of a seat.

Outgoing Fine Gael senior minister Peter Burke is sure to be returned to the Dáil, whilst Fianna Fail's Robert Troy, despite having to resign as a Minister of State during the last Dáil, is also very likely to be re-elected, with the extra votes in North Westmeath being in his favour.

Longford will also almost certainly return at least one TD, with sitting Fianna Fáil TD Joe Flaherty and Fine Gael Senator Michéal Carrigy expected to be neck-and-neck.

The extent of vote share within parties, transfers from party colleagues, and from Longford Independent Gerry Warnock, may ultimately settle the destination of that seat.

It means the last two seats are likely to be between Sinn Féin's outgoing TD, Sorca Clarke, Independent Cllr Kevin 'Boxer' Moran, Independent Ireland's Cllr Paul Hogan and the second Longford candidate, either Carrigy or Flaherty.

Clarke topped the poll in 2020, with a whopping 21% per cent of the vote, just months after losing her council seat in the local elections.

It would take a dramatic collapse for her not to retain her seat, though she will do extremely well to match the 3,500 votes she secured in Longford last time out (she has a running mate in the county now, Barry Campion), or the 1,850 votes she took in the Athlone municipal area – and which effectively deprived 'Boxer' Moran of his seat.

In her favour is an indication of a slight swing towards Sinn Féin in opinion polls in the last week.

After taking the largest percentage share of the vote in the country at the June local elections, 'Boxer' Moran would have been seen by many to be set for a spectacular return to the Dáil.

However, the decision by both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil to add a third candidate in the Athlone area, in the shape of Tanya Cannon and Dympna Cunniffe respectively, muddies the waters. They are both well-known locally, but newcomers to the political fray.

More significantly, Independent Ireland's Cllr Paul Hogan, who has previously contested four Dáil elections for Sinn Féin (three general elections and one by-election), is a live outsider.

Hogan has campaigned recently on the issue of international protection applicants. He has had a high profile on the Lissywollen accommodation centre controversy, and also raised concerns over the use of the former Stella Maris Nursing Home as a home for up to 60 asylum seekers.

The Independent Ireland brand is also popular at present, with both Michael Fitzmaurice and Ciaran Mullooly having significant profiles.

Hogan is not to be discounted, though 'Boxer' is both the bookmakers' favourite and political insiders' tip to emerge from the Athlone area and contest one of the last two seats, with a significant portion of the electorate still rueing the decision to unseat him in 2020.

Some political commentators are citing the outside possibility of both Flaherty and Carrigy being elected from Longford. This, though, would in all likelihood mean that four of the five TDs returned from this constituency would be from Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil.

Although the parties combined share was 55.6% in 2020, it would need to be over 60%, and with tight internal transfers, for that be any sort of prospect.

In the Athlone area, Louise Heavin is offering a progressive voice as an Independent, having left the Green Party, and Donal Jackson is running as an Independent.

Labour is running Fidelma Bennett, from Mullingar, and People Before Profit – Solidarity are represented by Longford-based Dave Smyth. The Green Party is running Carol Okeke, Aontú is fielding Laura O'Neill, Ireland First has Margaret Alacoque Maguire, and there are two other independents, Charlotte Keenan and Paul Bradley.

Our Q&A interviews with all of the candidates were published in print over the course of this week and last week, and they have also been published online, here at www.westmeathindependent.ie over recent days.