Politics watch: Independents the kingmakers in government formation

James Cox

Here, we have a look at the topics likely to dominate political discourse in the week to come.

Independents the key to government formation

While the Dáil is on Christmas break, talks with Independent TDs are likely to go on up until Christmas Eve.

Verona Murphy's successful election as Ceann Comhairle was backed by Taoiseach Simon Harris and Tánaiste Micheál Martin, making it all but certain that the next government will be a Fianna Fáil/Fine Gael/Regional Independents coalition.

The Regional Independent Group is made up of Michael Lowry, Sean Canney, Kevin 'Boxer' Moran, Noel Grealish, Marian Harkin, Barry Heneghan, Gillian Toole and Verona Murphy.

Michael Lowry is understood to be one of the leaders in the group, and was a key voice in Ms Murphy's nomination.

The group of Independents will have their eyes on a senior ministry, along with a super junior ministry, so this is likely to be the last big deal in the negotiations.

The Labour Party has confirmed it will remain in opposition.

While the Social Democrats are still in talks with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, the chances of any big progress there are remote.

Dáil Christmas break

There was a lot of criticism, including from some TDs, as a vote in favour of a five-week Christmas break passed.

The Dáil is set to resume on January 22nd at 12pm. The vote passed by a margin of 88 to 71.

Labour, the Social Democrats, People Before Profit and some Independents were among those criticising the move.

On January 22nd, a new government will likely be announced fairly sharply as behind-the-scenes negotiations will likely continue over the Christmas break.

Labour, Social Democrats, Sinn Féin to form 'coordinated' Opposition

While a Sinn Féin-led left wing government did not progress beyond some soundbits from TDs, there could be a more cooperative opposition in the 34th Dáil.

Labour, the Social Democrats and Sinn Féin have spoken about "strategic cooperation" in Opposition, according to The Irish Times.

Sources in the three parties said "closer cooordination in Opposition had been a theme in their discussions".

Abroad

Germany is gearing up for an election in February after the collapse of chancellor Olaf Scholz's government.

Billionaire Elon Musk has worried plenty of observers in Europe by voicing support for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party. This follows his backing Donald Trump's successful campaign in the recent US presidential election.

In Canada, prime minister Justin Trudeau's political options have narrowed after the leader of a small party that has helped keep his Liberal minority government in power said on Friday he would present a formal motion of no-confidence in parliament.

In the US, Mark Burnett (64) has been named special envoy to the UK by US president-elect Donald Trump.

Mr Burnett (64) has been named special envoy to the UK by US president-elect Donald Trump.

He is married to Derry-born actress Roma Downey, who is best known for her role as Monica the angel in the American television series Touched by an Angel.

In the UK, Mr Musk has also been making headlines amid worries that the X owner could also try to influence UK politics by giving millions of pounds to Nigel Farage's Reform UK party.